Let's face it, the SNP are going to be the kingmakers of the next parliament.

Hello ladies and gentlemen, today's my day to be controversial.

I kind of like the SNP. They're bold, they're swashbuckling, and as a young lad who watches too much Game of Thrones, I love a good bit of that. Ay, they're divisive by nature, being nationalists and all, but they're not so selfishly divisive as say, UKIP are. And who am I to judge about their nationalism ? I've only ever lived in France, so I can only say that my experience of Scottish political atmosphere comes from the few weeks of holiday I've spent their. Hell, I could declare myself Scottish, I've never concretely lived in any part of the UK.

All that aside, though, the fact that the SNP are on course to take at least 35 or more seats in Scotland means they are inevitably going to be pivotal in the next UK government. The Conservatives dread it, Labour deny it and the Lib Dems worry too much about it, given their position in current polling.

The Conservatives dread it because if they do manage to form a minority government, even with Lib Dem backing through supply and confidence, they could VERY easily loose a confidence vote with a Labour-SNP opposition. In fact, I dare say that because of the SNP, any prospect of a Tory government is completely off the table within a month after the election. So what do the Tories do ? Well, as we've seen, their lack of a good record in government leads to them making the SNP a bogeyman, and pinning Labour as their loyal puppies. A tactic more likely to split the union more than anything else.

Labour have rather lost it as well. Well, all the talk from Milliband so far has pointed to it: he has ruled out a coalition and seems opposed to a deal with the SNP, when they are his only key to Number 10. However, despite this, Labour will likely still be able to govern, though rather uncertainly, without any SNP deal. Here's why: remember Nicola Sturgeon going on about an anti-Tory pact in the BBC's opposition's debate ? I believe she meant it. But what will this mean for Britain ? Chaos, as there will no guessing what the SNP will vote for. In fact, a Labour-SNP deal would likely be bounds more stable than Labour going it in a minority government, even with SDLP and LibDem support, with the SNP in opposition.

And how about the Lib Dems ? I've already discussed that if they and Labour got lucky, they could govern together. But realistically, that's not going to happen, not without the SNP. Let me just put it out there, I think the Liberal Democrats should focus more on defending their seats than trying to throw stones at the SNP tank, and then having that backfire when it becomes clear that to actually do something in government, they will need the SNP. Do Lib Dems and Scottish nationalists all like each other ? No, but they do have at least one point in common: £8+ billion of NHS funding.

To conclude, I think it is safe to say that the SNP are this election's decider. Thing is, they've already decided: no Tories, maybe the others. And so far their decision remains far from challenged.

Owen.

12th April 2015 - Should the Lib Dems go into another coalition ?

"Should the Lib-Dems go into another coalition ?"

An interesting question, often overlooked. Just for fun, I'll draw up a bunch of scenarios (based on the number of seats each party gets and the Sheffield Hallam seat, come the 8th of May) and give an answer to the question for each one. Please bear these two things in mind:

1. An effective majority in the Commons is 317 seats, not 326. This is due to the MPs from Northern Ireland generally being non-participant.

2. This is based on my own opinion and predictions. Take it as you will, but please tell me what you think.

Scenario 1: Labour ~280 seats, Conservative ~280 seats, SNP ~40 seats, Lib Dems ~30 seats, Clegg re-elected.

Here we have a rather simple answer: should the opportunity arise, the Lib-Dems should at the very least go into a deal with one of the two bigger parties. For their sakes though, I would stay away from the Tories to avoid any further decline. The problem with this scenario is that Labour may reach out for a deal with the SNP before anyone else, with likely success, barring out the Lib-Dems. A good 5 years in opposition would not harm the Liberal Democrats, but Nick Clegg's unpopularity may limit the party's recovery over that time.

Scenario 2: Labour ~295 seats, Conservative ~270 seats, SNP ~30 seats, Lib Dems ~25 seats, Clegg not re-elected.

This scenario is a little trickier, as Malcom Bruce (Lib-Dem deputy leader currently) would be the one negotiating, not Nick Clegg. Bruce, despite being against a Labour deal or coalition, might be pushed by Clegg to take it, which I think would be the right decision to take. I believe going into government with Labour is what many people who voted Lib-Dem in 2010 hoped would happen. Doing this in 2015 would heal the relationship with that part of the public, thus restoring a bit of trust in the Lib-Dems. Going into opposition in this scenario would be chance for the Lib-Dems to fully recover though, and possibly elect a new leader, which is something Malcom Bruce will likely take into consideration.

Scenario 3: Labour ~270 seats, Conservative ~295 seats, SNP ~45 seats, Lib Dems ~30 seats.

In this scenario, I believe that it doesn't matter whether Clegg gets re-elected or not. The Lib-Dems simply cannot afford to spend another 5 years in government with the Tories, at risk of being completely discarded in 2020's election. This doesn't necessarily mean that they won't see through another 5 years with the Tories though: Nick Clegg has yet to say anything about a potential 2010 redux. Opposition in this scenario would be ideal, for the same reasons stated for Scenarios 1 & 2.

Scenario 4 (a wipeout): Labour 290-305 seats, Conservative ~260 seats, SNP 30-45 seats, Lib Dems ~15 seats.

Strange as it may sound, I believe the safest course of action in this scenario is for the Liberal Democrats to go into coalition with Labour, and undo some of the unavoidable damage done with the Tories. In opposition, the Lib-Dems would have very little voice or influence in parliament and may just end up being... Forgotten.



So that wraps it up, please share this around and don't hesitate to tell me what you think. Do you think it would be wise for the Liberal Democrats to enter government once more ?

Owen Wright.