Let's face it, the SNP are going to be the kingmakers of the next parliament.

Hello ladies and gentlemen, today's my day to be controversial.

I kind of like the SNP. They're bold, they're swashbuckling, and as a young lad who watches too much Game of Thrones, I love a good bit of that. Ay, they're divisive by nature, being nationalists and all, but they're not so selfishly divisive as say, UKIP are. And who am I to judge about their nationalism ? I've only ever lived in France, so I can only say that my experience of Scottish political atmosphere comes from the few weeks of holiday I've spent their. Hell, I could declare myself Scottish, I've never concretely lived in any part of the UK.

All that aside, though, the fact that the SNP are on course to take at least 35 or more seats in Scotland means they are inevitably going to be pivotal in the next UK government. The Conservatives dread it, Labour deny it and the Lib Dems worry too much about it, given their position in current polling.

The Conservatives dread it because if they do manage to form a minority government, even with Lib Dem backing through supply and confidence, they could VERY easily loose a confidence vote with a Labour-SNP opposition. In fact, I dare say that because of the SNP, any prospect of a Tory government is completely off the table within a month after the election. So what do the Tories do ? Well, as we've seen, their lack of a good record in government leads to them making the SNP a bogeyman, and pinning Labour as their loyal puppies. A tactic more likely to split the union more than anything else.

Labour have rather lost it as well. Well, all the talk from Milliband so far has pointed to it: he has ruled out a coalition and seems opposed to a deal with the SNP, when they are his only key to Number 10. However, despite this, Labour will likely still be able to govern, though rather uncertainly, without any SNP deal. Here's why: remember Nicola Sturgeon going on about an anti-Tory pact in the BBC's opposition's debate ? I believe she meant it. But what will this mean for Britain ? Chaos, as there will no guessing what the SNP will vote for. In fact, a Labour-SNP deal would likely be bounds more stable than Labour going it in a minority government, even with SDLP and LibDem support, with the SNP in opposition.

And how about the Lib Dems ? I've already discussed that if they and Labour got lucky, they could govern together. But realistically, that's not going to happen, not without the SNP. Let me just put it out there, I think the Liberal Democrats should focus more on defending their seats than trying to throw stones at the SNP tank, and then having that backfire when it becomes clear that to actually do something in government, they will need the SNP. Do Lib Dems and Scottish nationalists all like each other ? No, but they do have at least one point in common: £8+ billion of NHS funding.

To conclude, I think it is safe to say that the SNP are this election's decider. Thing is, they've already decided: no Tories, maybe the others. And so far their decision remains far from challenged.

Owen.