12th April 2015 - Should the Lib Dems go into another coalition ?

"Should the Lib-Dems go into another coalition ?"

An interesting question, often overlooked. Just for fun, I'll draw up a bunch of scenarios (based on the number of seats each party gets and the Sheffield Hallam seat, come the 8th of May) and give an answer to the question for each one. Please bear these two things in mind:

1. An effective majority in the Commons is 317 seats, not 326. This is due to the MPs from Northern Ireland generally being non-participant.

2. This is based on my own opinion and predictions. Take it as you will, but please tell me what you think.

Scenario 1: Labour ~280 seats, Conservative ~280 seats, SNP ~40 seats, Lib Dems ~30 seats, Clegg re-elected.

Here we have a rather simple answer: should the opportunity arise, the Lib-Dems should at the very least go into a deal with one of the two bigger parties. For their sakes though, I would stay away from the Tories to avoid any further decline. The problem with this scenario is that Labour may reach out for a deal with the SNP before anyone else, with likely success, barring out the Lib-Dems. A good 5 years in opposition would not harm the Liberal Democrats, but Nick Clegg's unpopularity may limit the party's recovery over that time.

Scenario 2: Labour ~295 seats, Conservative ~270 seats, SNP ~30 seats, Lib Dems ~25 seats, Clegg not re-elected.

This scenario is a little trickier, as Malcom Bruce (Lib-Dem deputy leader currently) would be the one negotiating, not Nick Clegg. Bruce, despite being against a Labour deal or coalition, might be pushed by Clegg to take it, which I think would be the right decision to take. I believe going into government with Labour is what many people who voted Lib-Dem in 2010 hoped would happen. Doing this in 2015 would heal the relationship with that part of the public, thus restoring a bit of trust in the Lib-Dems. Going into opposition in this scenario would be chance for the Lib-Dems to fully recover though, and possibly elect a new leader, which is something Malcom Bruce will likely take into consideration.

Scenario 3: Labour ~270 seats, Conservative ~295 seats, SNP ~45 seats, Lib Dems ~30 seats.

In this scenario, I believe that it doesn't matter whether Clegg gets re-elected or not. The Lib-Dems simply cannot afford to spend another 5 years in government with the Tories, at risk of being completely discarded in 2020's election. This doesn't necessarily mean that they won't see through another 5 years with the Tories though: Nick Clegg has yet to say anything about a potential 2010 redux. Opposition in this scenario would be ideal, for the same reasons stated for Scenarios 1 & 2.

Scenario 4 (a wipeout): Labour 290-305 seats, Conservative ~260 seats, SNP 30-45 seats, Lib Dems ~15 seats.

Strange as it may sound, I believe the safest course of action in this scenario is for the Liberal Democrats to go into coalition with Labour, and undo some of the unavoidable damage done with the Tories. In opposition, the Lib-Dems would have very little voice or influence in parliament and may just end up being... Forgotten.



So that wraps it up, please share this around and don't hesitate to tell me what you think. Do you think it would be wise for the Liberal Democrats to enter government once more ?

Owen Wright.